I am incredibly relieved. I have been urging - and even begging - people for months to vote for Mikie Sherrill. I was confident that she was the best bet to win what will surely be a very close general election. But, most of all, I was terrified that the primary would be won by either a candidate with a concerning relationship with avowed antisemites or a candidate who based his entire strategy on loyalty and vengeance.
Extremism did not win. To be clear, Ciaterelli is pretty far right, but he is not as bad as Spadea, who lost handily. Bramnick would have been a far better candidate, but in a post-Trump world, he could not have won the primary.
The strongest moderate won the Democratic primary by a massive margin. She is not a “conservative.” She is not a “Blue Dog Democrat.” She is a true Democrat with policies that align with the majority of Democratic voters. This was a testament to the fact that the majority of voters want common-sense policies and not extremism.
Social media is not real life. To be fair, it absolutely does reflect the sentiment of the younger demographic, and it should not be discounted. When I said folks were coming out strong for Baraka based on what I was seeing on TikTok, I wasn’t wrong. Facebook and Twitter are the home of chronically online progressives who were very loud and assured for Fulop. But it didn’t translate at the polls.
None of this could compete with the sentiment of the “quiet Sherrill voter.” The people who wanted someone calm, collected, and experienced. The average voter was not really tuned in, and most went on the suggestions of friends and family.
That said, personal advocacy matters. Minds and hearts are not changed in the comments section. But your neighbor who knows and trusts you is paying attention to your lawn sign and your Facebook posts - trust me. This is where real influence lies.
Your lawn sign matters, but the signs on the highways and abandoned lots do not. If the signs on the highway mattered, Spiller and Sweeney would have dominated this race. They decidedly did not.
Without the line, county endorsements matter less. Sherrill beating Sweeney in Camden County was shocking. At the same time, Essex and Union endorsed Sherill but Baraka took the top spot (less, surprisingly in Essex, where Newark is located). Randomly, Spiller took Cumberland County. The county endorsements certainly make a difference, including the money and manpower that brings. But it is no longer a sure thing.
Primaries are good and healthy and sometimes necessary - but let’s not just primary everyone for no reason. We will surely all have different opinions on who should be primaried and why. But I really don’t think anyone needed to primary strong, effective freshman Democrats who won swing districts. In fact, a couple of freshman legislators who aligned with the whole “primary challenge” movement actually lost.
But the winners had to spend a ton of money to defend their seats, leaving them far less funded for tough generals in November. And because the party had to defend incumbents in the primary, some good new Democrats in more Republican areas who wanted to run decided not to because the party couldn’t help fund their campaigns. This was all unwise and really should have been avoided. In a critical gubernatorial year, this was short-sighted and selfish.
Hubris is a bitch, and I’m disapointed to see that Camden County Democratic Committee* bit themselves in the ass with their goofy ballot design in Cherry Hill. And this gives me absolutely no pleasure as I am far more aligned with the establishment Democrats than the progressives, and have been since I saw some of their nonsensical behavior even before 10/7.
While I have no interest in helping the chances of folks aligned with the “down with Zionists” protests outside my local donut shop, I have always been in favor of fair ballots. And grouping 75 people as a slate with one vote is simply unfair. The progressives tried to sue to change the ballot and lost - and now the chickens have come home to roost.
Watching 75 mostly Jewish well-respected Democratic activists lose their seats because of a strange ballot is deeply upsetting and could have been avoided. It is unlikely all these people really understood how they were voting because it simply does not track with the demographics or the other results. But here we are.
My hope is that instead of the progressives trying to appoint 75 seats, they will come together in good faith with some of the former committee people to create a slate of committee members that truly reflects the diversity of the community. But I am sure that this will not actually happen and it will turn into a unnecessarily contentious shit show.
See Column G through the eyes of an uninformed voter
The Jewish vote is not a monolith, and I was correct that Gottheimer had no chance. Even if Sweeney had dropped out of the race and given his 50K moderate votes to Gottheimer, he still wouldn’t have even secured second place. Many Jewish people preferred Fulop or Sherrill, and even some of the very left-leaning Jews voted for Baraka. And, of course, there’s probably 25% or more Jews who are registered Republicans. That said, we are a critical voting bloc, and our support needs to be taken seriously. I hope that all winners across the board will invest in listening to our community.
This primary caused a lot of inter-party damage. There were baseless and vicious attacks, and many people whose preferred candidate did not win are pissed. We can NOT let this turn into a repeat of 2016 and 2024. But I am confident that New Jersey will do the right thing - it will just take all of us to work together and move forward.
Freshly Baked Hell is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Spot-on as usual!